BISMARCK, N.D. – American energy markets are experiencing a full-circle moment nearly 50 years in the making. In 1977, President Jimmy Carter delivered an “unpleasant talk” calling “the energy crisis” “the greatest challenge our country will face in our lifetime … the moral equivalent of war.” Two years later, Iran’s revolution sparked global energy chaos. Fast forward to today, “Iran” and “gas prices” are again dominating headlines, bringing questions about energy independence to the forefront.
U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND) penned an op-ed in the Fargo Forum, advocating for increased domestic refining capability, saying, “turning our production dominance into energy independence requires our refineries being tuned to operate in this century’s reality, not the last one.”
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Domestic Production Plus Refining Equals Dominance
The Fargo Forum – April 18, 2026
American energy markets are experiencing a full-circle moment nearly 50 years in the making. In 1977, President Jimmy Carter delivered an “unpleasant talk” calling “the energy crisis” “the greatest challenge our country will face in our lifetime … the moral equivalent of war.” Two years later, Iran’s revolution sparked global energy chaos. Fast forward to today, with “Iran” and “gas prices” again dominating our headlines—are we energy independent?
Few Americans filling up their tanks would say the price they’re paying isn’t affected by circumstances in the Middle East. Consumers see record production and rightly question the disconnect at the pump.
During the crisis, Carter acknowledged, “We have the natural resources. We have more oil in our shale alone than several Saudi Arabias.” He was right, but it was President Ronald Reagan who met the moment by leasing almost three times as much public land for energy development as any other president. Since then, the shale revolution paired with President Trump’s energy dominance agenda has made the U.S. the world’s largest oil producer, from roughly 8 million barrels per day (mbpd) at the start of Carter’s administration to 13.5 mbpd today.
Iran’s chokehold on the Strait has increased demand for U.S. crude, while President Trump’s “dill, baby drill” policies ensure the world can “buy oil from the United States of America.”
But production is only half the story. Despite increasing production, refining capacity regressed, swapping one vulnerability for another. In 1982 there were 254 refineries; now there are 132. On the East Coast, capacity has declined by more than half in the last two decades while on the West Coast, the number of refineries is expected to drop from 23 in 2000 to 11 by the end of this year.
This trend concentrated capacity in the Midwest and Gulf Coast, forcing consumers to absorb higher transportation costs. Worse, nearly 70% of domestic refining capability is tuned for imported heavy-sour crude, while only 30% is optimized for the light-sweet crude we actually produce! Our archaic system remains rooted in Carter’s world of imported dependence rather than optimized for Reagan and Trump’s vision of American strength.
So, are we energy independent? At best, “sort of.” For the greatest nation in the world, that’s not good enough. In fact, it’s infuriating. But before we talk solutions, let’s take a few things off the table.
One of the worst reactions in the 1970s was the oil export ban, a policy treating production as static, instead of a commodity which is responsive to demand. There is already chatter of reinstituting the ban—a colossal mistake because hoarding domestic crude can’t solve the problem if only a third of our refineries use it. It would reduce production, eliminate jobs, and weaken our geopolitical position.
We should do the direct opposite of California. Despite vast reserves, California’s high taxes, overregulation, and climate mandates created an affordability nightmare, and still require the state to import over 60% of its crude from foreign sources with over 20% traversing the Strait of Hormuz. A similar pattern exists for much of Europe, where natural resources are squandered by incompetence, only to be backfilled by despots, leaving consumers to pay the price.
Oil is a global commodity. Prices will fluctuate, but turning our production dominance into energy independence requires our refineries being tuned to operate in this century’s reality, not the last one.
Section 7 of Trump’s executive order declaring a “national energy emergency” directs a review of vulnerabilities tied to “insufficient transportation and refining infrastructure." This report can’t sugarcoat the risk in our supply chains; it must reject the antiquated notion America doesn’t need additional refineries, as well as the dour forecasters whose predictions on peak oil have been as accurate as the overpopulation doomsdayers of the 1960s and 70s.
There are opportunities to reverse course. President Trump announced a new refinery in Texas and North Dakota has a fully-permitted refinery pending financing.
Congress is debating permitting reform, and the administration has tools at its disposal to facilitate new or retooled refineries. The Working Families Tax Cuts bolstered loan programs and Defense Production Act funding for energy security projects. Everything must be on the table.
As we are seeing today, history repeats itself. Carter knew we had more oil and he knew accessing it would make us more secure, but it was Reagan who promoted policies to capitalize on our resources. We need to follow his example.
We can learn from history’s lessons or suffer its same mistakes. We have seen how visionary leaders can turn a crisis of confidence into energy abundance through wise public policies. It’s time to do it again.